2024. Déficits na conta corrente são sempre maus, mesmo se forem financiados por investimentos diretos (Artigo: Valor)
NEW-DEVELOPMENTAL THEORY (NDT)
ND - CRITIQUE OF GROWTH WITH FOREIGN INDEBTEDNESS POLICY
2016. Against conventional wisdom, countries that don't incur into current account deficits grow faster, because such deficits correspond to an overvalued currency that encourages consumption and discourages investment. (Paper)
2016. With José Luis Oreiro e Nelson Marconi. Our more complete analysis of Developmental Macroeconomics - the central economic theory within New Developmentalism. (book) Nas livrarias e em kindle
2016. Paper with Thiago de Moraes Moreira. Current account deficits, even when financed by direct investments, hinder instead of enhance growth because the cause overvaluation of the national currency. (Paper in edited book to be published)
2014. With Nelson Marconi and José Luís Oreiro. Developmental Macroeconomics is a book on development macroeconomics associated with New Developmentalism. In its core are the exchange rate and the current account, instead of the budget deficit and the interest rate. (Book: Routledge) Nas livrarias e em Kindle
2014. With Eliane Araújo and Paulo Gala. (Paper). Econometric comprovation of a high rate of substituition of foreign for domestic savings. (Paper in EconomiA, da ANPEC). English version available.
2014. With Eliane Araújo e Paulo Gala. Econometric comprovation of a high rate of substituition of foreign for domestic savings. (Paper: Revista EconomiA) Portuguese version available.
2010. The four articles of my debate with prof. Affonso Celso Pastore on whether or not "foreign savings" (current account deficits) contribute to investment and growth.
2008. Contrarily to what say conventional economists, current account deficit does not imply excess demand it may simply be the outcome of an overvalued exchange rate. (Article with Paulo Gala: Valor).
2007. Trade cannot be de-linked from finance because the exchange rate represents a major intersection between the two field. Yet, the exchange rate is forgotten in international trade and in economic growth courses, and in trade negotiations at WTO. Countries that have reserve currencies abhor taking on the exchange rate (Intervention at UNCTAD seminar)
2007. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system. A first presentation of the developmental macroeconomics. Why Brazil failed to grow fast after the Real Plan. (Book: Editora 34) Out of print; availble in this site. English version available: Developing Brazil (2009).
2007. Interview to Tatiana Bautzer on the book "Macroeconomia da Estagnação": the Dutch disease is one of the causes of real's overapreciation. (Valor, 18.5)
2007. With Paulo Gala. A formalization of the critique of the strategy of growth with foreign savings: the consequent exchange rate appreciation increases artificially wages and causes the substitution of domestic with foreign savings. English version available.(Paper: Revista de Economia Política)
2007. With Paulo Gala. A formalization of the critique of the strategy of growth with foreign savings: the consequent exchange rate appreciation increases artificially wages and causes the substitution of domestic with foreign savings. Portuguese and Spanish versions available.(Paper to be published in book)
2006. Between 1994 and 1999, foreign savings substitute domestic ones instead of increasing investment (72,5%) The inverse happened when the country experienced current account surplus (113,9%). (Paper, just in this site) Portuguese version available.
2006. The rate of substitution of foreign for domestic savings was high in Brazil in the period 1994-99, as the inverse rate was also high in the 2000-05 period. The critique of growth with foreign savings applied to Brazil. (Unpublished paper)
2006. The rate of substitution of foreign for domestic savings was high in Brazil in the period 1994-99, as the inverse rate was also high in the 2000-05 period. The critique of growth with foreign savings applied to Brazil.(Paper)
2005. The balance of payment crises in developing countries (originated in the strategy of growth with foreign savings) and the enormous US current account deficit are both the outcome of economic populism. The later problem points out to a hard landing. English version available.(Paper: Estudos Econômicos) .
2005. With Paulo Gala. A formalization of the critique of the strategy of growth with foreign savings that I have been doing since 2001. This version was substantially improved in 2006 receiving the new title "Why foreign savings fail to cause growth", in English, and "Por que a poupança externa não promove crescimento" in Portuguese. I keep this version here just for the record. (Paper: Texto para Discussão)
2005. The Lula administrtion cannot avoid exchange rate appreciation because it is trapped by its policy on the interest rate. To buy dollars is impossible given the financial costs involved.(Article: Folha de S.Paulo)