Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira
Cadernos Adenauer 3, 2002: 79-102. Conferência pronunciada no Simpósio sobre as Perspectivas das Eleições Brasileiras, patrocinado pela Fundação Adenauer. Berlim, maio de 2002. Revisada em agosto 2002.
Abstract. The probability that the official candidate, José Serra, is defeated in the next elections by the oppositions candidate Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, is high. While the Cardoso administration (1995-2002) was successful in defining and implementing social policy, its economic outcomes were frustrating. The decision of setting high inflation as the major problem to be tackled instead of achieving equilibrium in foreign accounts represented a major macroeconomic mistake, which can be explained by the Second Washington Consensus. This consensus proposed, in the 1990s, that highly indebted countries should grow counting on foreign savings, although this is not the experience among OECD countries. The outcome was to evaluate the Real, to artificially increase wages and consumption, so that instead of growth what we have is increased indebtedness. Why was this flopped strategy adopted? Rich countries interests are not difficult to guess. On the part of Brazil, the only explanation is Brazilian elites alienation in relation to the countrys national interest. As a final outcome, the Cardoso administration ends with another balance of payments crisis.
